Part of the way with CBK!

Hate to admit it, but I hadn't been paying much attention to the talk that Caroline Bouvier Kennedy might become my state's Senator.

I figured the talk was just that, talk, Media types expressing their half-wish, half-belief that politics is a 1980s style night time soap opera like Dynasty or Dallas with no more real world consequences than JR's scheming or Alexis' latest plot against Krystle.  As far as I was concerned, Caroline Kennedy's name was coming up for the same reason Bill Clinton's was.  They're celebrities with sexy back stories and speculation about them was an excuse to talk about the sexy back stories instead of political realities.

I thought a Kennedy might be appointed to replace Hillary Clinton when she becomes Secretary of State, but I thought that Kennedy would be Robert Kennedy Jr.

And if it wasn't him, my money would have been on someone who'd been married to a Kennedy and whose children are members of the clan, Andrew Cuomo.

I supposed that, ideally, Governor Paterson should pick one of the New York City Congresswomen who've been mentioned for the job, either Carolyn Maloney or Nydia Velazquez.

(Velazquez has taken herself out of consideration.)

But now that it's beginning to look as though Kennedy's appointment a serious possibility, I guess as a responsible citizen and voter I need to develop an opinion.

Give me a second.

Ok.  Got one.

I think it's a good idea.

But not a satisfying one.

I don't think she's the best candidate for the job.  Andrew Cuomo, her cousin, the two Congresswomen from New York City, the two from Long Island, just about every New York Congressperson, the mayor of Buffalo, and probably a few State Senators are far better qualified for the job.  Any one of them would probably make a better Senator, at least to start with.  And choosing any one of them would make all the others really mad.

What I'm saying is that if I were Governor Paterson I think I would be extremely grateful Caroline Kennedy's offering to take the decision out of my hands.

The object here is not to pick the best person for the job.  The job is to pick the best person who can hold onto the seat in the next election.

And the election after that.

The next Senator has to run in a special election in 2010 and then run again in 2012 when Clinton's term would have expired.

That would give the Republicans two quick shots at defeating the appointee, whose hold on the office would be shaky and who wouldn't have time to build up a lot of political capital and good will around the state.

And it wouldn't be just a Republican who saw an opportunity.  The passed-over Congresscritters, their constituencies and the local machines that supported them, would all be out for blood and vengeance.  The reason New York City has had a Republican mayor for so long is that New York City Democrats hate each other.

It's borough against borough down there.

And even within the boroughs the local machines have factions.

Republicans who might have gotten their hopes up when Clinton accepted Barack Obama's offer to make her his Secretary of State are having second thoughts at the prospect of having to take on a Kennedy.

But Caroline Kennedy is also a lot less likely to face a serious primary challenge.

Again, if I was Governor Paterson, this would be a relief, because it's not just the Senate seat that has to be defended in 2010.  Paterson himself will be running, trying to get elected to the office he now holds by accident.  I'd much rather run with Caroline Kennedy's name on the ballot next to mine, and I'd much rather be running with the party happy, confident, and united behind me or at least grumpily going through the motions of being all those things.

I'm talking through my hat, of course.  I don't have a clue as to what's going on inside David Paterson's head.  Besides thinking that the Caroline Kennedy for Senator talk was just a form of gossip-mongering, I wondered if she wasn't being used as a stalking horse.  Her celebrity was useful for keeping the Media's focus off the Governor as he took his time about making up his mind and then working behind the scenes to gain support for his choice and mend fences, smooth fences, and put out fires.

For all I know, this is in fact what's going on.

Kennedy herself sure sounds like she means it though.

Probably I'm not as bothered by the dynastic dilemma as I ought to be.  Republicans and their media apologists expressing disapproval are a pack of hypocrites and liars because we all know that if George W. Bush hadn't screwed everything up they'd be enthusiastically talking up his brother Jeb as the heir apparent and telling us why the dynastic thing didn't matter any more than it mattered when W. was running for President on his father's good name.  But as a small d democrat of course I'm against creating, perpetuating, and rewarding an aristocracy, even a liberal one, in principle.  I don't like it that Kennedy could be my Senator for the next two years just because she's a Kennedy.  But as a capital D Democrat I believe that the best way to ensure small d democratic principles are represented and advanced in Washington is to send liberal Democratic Senators there to represent and advance them.  That means winning elections.  Caroline Kennedy appears to be a very liberal Democrat, in the tradition of her uncle Ted, and she can win.

In a truly democratic and egalitarian society, a person's family background should not be held against her, she should be judged and allowed to succeed or fail on her own merits, and that's just as true if she comes from a rich and powerful and famous family as from a poor and obscure one.  I wouldn't have any complaint if Paterson appoints either Andrew Cuomo or Robert Kennedy, even though both of them are beneficiaries of political legacies.  I haven't looked into everybody else's backgrounds thoroughly but it's a safe bet that some of them have benefited from family connections and old school ties.   And the dynastic dilemma hasn't really been much of a problem in the history of the Republic.  The Bushes have been a problem, but the Adamses, the Roosevelts, the Tafts, the Stevensons, and the Kennedys are more important for the exceptional individuals that have occasionally risen from the gene pools than for their influence as families, which for all of them have waned faster than they ever waxed.

The possibility that the son of a former Vice-President and President and grandson of a United States Senator was going to be succeeded by the wife of a former President was something to think about but it would have a real anomaly and wouldn't have been repeated.  Neither Jeb Bush nor Chelsea Clinton would have become the 45th President of the United States.  Go back over the list of Presidents in the 20th Century and you have a list of ten self-made men and five inheritors of family political legacies, and those five include two Democrats, three progressives, and one who was probably the greatest enemy of an American aristocracy that the country's ever had.

In the last election, the people chose the son of a single mother over the son and grandson of admirals and husband of an heiress.

What I'm saying is that while it's annoying that Caroline Kennedy would probably not be about to become a United States Senator if she'd been born a Schlossberg instead of marrying one, I think the Republic and democracy will survive a legacy appointment.

Here in New York we seem to have one our Senate seats reserved for celebrity carpetbaggers---Bobby Kennedy, James Buckley, and Hillary Clinton pretty much sent us letters from out of state announcing that they were going to do us the favor and honor of becoming our Senator, and we could thank them for it later.  Caroline Kennedy is at least a more thorough-going New Yorker than they were.

My reservations about her are based more on her resume than her pedigree.  She may be a Kennedy, but she's been an extremely quiet one.

Steve Clemons wonders if Kennedy isn't just plain unqualified for the job:

It seems hypocritical to on the one hand challenge Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's qualifications and readiness to have potentially assumed the presidency if something had happened to John McCain and if, of course, their ticket had won on November 4th and then on the other, say nothing about Caroline Kennedy's dearth of real policy and political experience to assume one of the most powerful offices in the country -- even if a Senator is usually not as consequential as a President.

There's a big difference between being one of a hundred Senators and the possible Vice-President of a 72 year old President with a recent history of cancer and other health problems.  Steve is aware of it, but Steve is making the comparison in order to point out something else.  Note this bit: "Caroline Kennedy's dearth of real policy and political experience to assume one of the most powerful offices in the country..."

At the moment New York State is represented in two of the most powerful, persuasive, and effective liberals in the Senate.  (Pause here for obligatory lament about what that says about the sorry state of liberalism.)  We're not talking about replacing a Republican, whom replacing with almost any liberal Democrat would be a welcome part of a general improvement project.  The next Senator will be succeeding Hillary Clinton who succeeded Daniel Patrick Moynihan.  I don't want our state to give up that power and influence.

Caroline Kennedy may turn out to be a quick study and quickly turn herself into a knowledgeable and responsible Senator.  But how fast can she turn herself into a tough and savvy political leader?

Kennedy has been active in many worthy causes and has demonstrated leadership and organizational skills.  She has had to be political.  But that doesn't necessarily mean she's been an effective politician.

Or to put it starkly, I don't think she scares people.

I've only seen her in public once, that was back in September at ServiceNation, which she helped organize.  She didn't speak.  She came on stage with some other VIPs and when she was introduced she looked a little embarrassed and gave a shy little wave that made me think of a mother in the PTO who has been asked to stand by the President so everybody can applaud her for the good job she did organizing the upcoming raffle.  I admired her apparent modesty and desire for self-effacement and I thought, What a nice lady!

Which is what I'm imagining some other powerful Senator thinking to himself as he's ushered her out his door.

Somehow I doubt it's what other powerful Senators think about Hillary Clinton as she kicks their doors down.

_________________________

If Paterson follows the polls in making his pick, then State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo will be our next Senator.  I'm kind of surprised Paterson hasn't already picked him.  (So is Cuomo, according to the New York Times.)  Again, I've got nothing close to inside knowlege, but if I were Paterson I'd see some compelling advantages in sending Cuomo to Washington.  Cuomo would like to have his father's old job, Governor, and while I would expect he'll be willing to wait until 2014 when my second term's up, assuming I don't want a third term, he's not known for his patience and I don't know for sure how my chances are shaping up for 2010.  My new budget proposal isn't making me a lot of friends.  Senator Andrew Cuomo running for his own election is a much more reliable ally than Attorney General Andrew Cuomo who is very likely nursing a grudge.  I'd rather not have any primary challenge from that quarter, thank you very much.

And that would clear the way for Robert Kennedy to become state AG.

No predictions here, except this:  If it were up to me, whoever's our next senator will have a famous father.

Comments

[Chris The Cop]

Two quick points:

1) I don't see how you can think Ms. Kennedy for Senator "is a good idea" - she's not qualified. That means she shouldn't be a United States Senator. (And now she's refusing--initially---to disclose her finances unless and until she's appointed.) No matter how this is spun, it smacks mightily of entitlement. At least Bush RAN for something--and won--before running for President.

2) The Dems don't need her to win the Senate seat in 2010. NY State is such that there won't be a Republican winning a state wide office for a long,long time. OBama even won Oswego County, for God's sake, Lance!! Dems are a lock! At least until their version of Jack Abramoff surfaces.

[Linkmeister]

Er, um.

. . .three qualifications for senators: 1) each senator must be at least 30 years old, 2) must have been a citizen of the United States for at least the past nine years, and 3) must be (at the time of the election) an inhabitant of the state they seek to represent.

Those are the only quals the Constitution requires.

Jesse Helms was a two-term city councilman and radio talk-show host before he became a Senator.

Al Franken, if he ultimately wins in Minnesota this year, will have had no political experience other than this campaign.

Fred Thompson was a lobbyist and actor before he became a Senator.

I don't know how I feel about Caroline Kennedy as a Senator, but she's as qualified as those guys were.

[Linkmeister]

Oh crap. Imagine there's a closed tag after Helms.

[Daniel]

So, Linkmeister, that list of names is supposed to make me feel better about Caroline Kennedy?

I just can't imagine that New York is so devoid of political talent that this is the best they can do.

[Linkmeister]

No, Daniel, just pointing out that there have been other examples of people with little political experience becoming Senators. I left out political wives (like Hilary) since they've been around the game for as long as their husbands were in it.

[Frank Carmelo]

RFK can't be AG because of his drug convictions. And his bizarre anti-science jeremiad on the autism-vaccine story is pretty embarrassing. As is his opposition to Cape Wind.

When it's pretty and not near a Kennedy home, he's quite a good enviro activist. But he lost me for good with Cape Wind. Idiotic.

[Frank Carmelo]

RFK can't be AG because of his drug convictions. And his bizarre anti-science jeremiad on the autism-vaccine story is pretty embarrassing. As is his opposition to Cape Wind.

When it's pretty and not near a Kennedy home, he's quite a good enviro activist. But he lost me for good with Cape Wind. Idiotic.

[Deschanel]

I am cautiously willing to let Caroline Kennedy give it a try. People repeating her lack of elected experience dismiss a lifetime of being a Kennedy, writing books about the Constitution, quiet work behind the scenes for causes she believes in. I understand where her critics are coming from, but they also dismiss some very real assets she has, that a journeyman politician does not.

For one, there are generations of Democrats in Congress who owe their careers and decades of political wisdom and guidance to her uncle Ted- she will have powerful allies in getting things done for NY.

Second, and this is indeed an intangible that people vastly underestimate: sheer star power. I'm sorry, but I cannot help see both of her parents when I see pictures of Caroline, and their iconic legacies are still very powerful symbols to many Democrats, it's undeniable.
Rationalists and technocrats dismiss this atavism, but it is a powerful thing, probably the very reason pre-modern societies had monarchies in the first place. The Kennedy family story still resonates, she is a walking embodiment of a vanished golden age.

I realize some see this as undemocratic balderdash, but charisma and star power is what history is made of, not just dull competence. I see no reason why Caroline Kennedy would not be less worthy than an upstate congressman, say. Like Lance, it''s an intuition that she might indeed be a very good senator for NY. She seems smart, cultured, her wealth makes her beholden to no one for corrupt financial gain, she's evinced a lifelong interest and participation in American life, albeit in many subtle, quiet ways.

[Chris G.]

Paterson could always appoint Mario Cuomo to hold the seat for a few years. That would make me smile. Then the congresscritters could fight it out in 2010 or 2012.

I do have to say that the hand-wringing over a possible CBK appointment strikes me has really, really funny in a sad sort of way, as if THIS would be the interim appointment that would show how awful the very notion of interim appointments is. I'll take Caroline Kennedy or Harris Wofford over Roger Wicker any day, thanks.

[actor212]

Caroline Kennedy is more than qualified

Or doesn't community activism count after Barack Obama.

[SweetSue]

The notion of Mrs. Schlossberg as a "community activist" is pretty funny.
Well, I suppose the American Ballet Theatre is a community.

[actor212]

SweetSue,

Which part of my post makes you think I even mentioned her work with Lincoln Center?

Or did you even bother to look at her near-decade long relationship with the NYC Department of Education?

I'm guessing not. More's the pity.

[cali]

Kirsten Gillibrand "Let’s take a look at what a qualified candidate for the New York Senate seat looks like.

Born and raised in Albany, she graduated from the Emma Willard School in Troy, the country’s first all women’s high school. She went on to Dartmouth, graduating magna cum laude in 1988. She got her law degree from UCLA in 1991 and served as a law clerk for the Second Circuit Court of Appeals whose jurisdiction includes the Districts of Connecticut and Vermont, as well as the Eastern, Southern, Western, and Northern Districts of New York.

She served as Special Council to HUD Secretary, Andrew Cuomo, during the Clinton administration where, among other efforts, she helped strengthen the Davis-Bacon Act of 1936 which states that all federal construction contracts, and the majority of construction projects operating with federal assistance of $2000 or more, must provide for paying workers no less than the local prevailing wage and benefits package for similar projects.

She was a partner at Boise, Schiller, and Flexner, doing pro bono work for abused women and their kids. She sat on the Board of the Eleanor Roosevelt Legacy Committee, the Committee on Greenway Heritage Conservancy for the Hudson River Valley, and the advisory board of the Brennan Center for Justice.

This Blue Dog Democrat, representing New York’s 20th Congressional District, supports stem cell research, the Children’s Health and Medicare Protection Act, is against the partial privatization of Social Security, and opposed now disgraced Governor Eliot Spitzer’s plan to issue driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. Can I just say right here that I really like this lady?

In Congress she sits on the Congressional Agriculture subcommittees on Horticulture and Organic Agriculture, and the subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry. In the Congressional Armed Services Committee she sits on the subcommittees on Sea Power and Expeditionary Forces, and Terrorism and Unconventional Threats.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I think we have a winner."

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Unfortunately, political appointments are often about things other than experience and qualifications for the job. We may never recover from the Presidential Idol debacle.

Meanwhile, at least Ms. kennedy seems to be gaining some self-awareness:

Kennedy offered no excuses for why she failed to vote in a number of elections since registering in New York City in 1988, including in 1994 when Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan was up for re-election as the state’s senior senator.

“I was really surprised and dismayed by my voting record,” she told the Associated Press. “I’m glad it’s been brought to my attention.”

In her first sit-down interview since she emerged as a Senate hopeful, the 51-year-old daughter of President John F. Kennedy said she has always pondered jumping into politics, but waited for the right moment.

Yeah, the moment is perfect.