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lina

Please forward this post to all voters in Ohio and Texas before tomorrow.

actor212

Obama's saying they don't have to take it anymore. They can come over to our side.

They won't.

This has been another episode of "Simple Answers to Ridiculous Scenarios"...

Lance

actor,

Depends on who you mean by "they." A whole lot of "they" are already doing it, that's part of how Obama's been winning.

Some will, some won't. The aim is to make the Democratic majority bigger, not to make things unanimous. Might as well be able to say to the ones who don't come over, Hey, we offered.

And like I said, no Democrat is going to be able to govern by saying Fuck you to 50 to 60 per cent of the voters.

Victoria

Lance, have you read Dreams From My Father, Obama's memoir? I'd be interested in your take on it. It largely dissolved my "Obama problems." He embodies of what he says; the sources are clear and, I would add, clean. Love to have a conversation here about that book. In fact, let's all buy copies via your Amazon button.

Linkmeister

"no Democrat is going to be able to govern by saying Fuck you to 50 to 60 per cent of the voters."

The Bush Administration has done so for seven-plus years now (for some value of "govern.")

Lance

Link, true enough, although it's been pretty easy for them since their definition of govern has been "SACK THE VILLAGE!"

I'm hoping that's not what President Clinton or President Obama will mean by it.

Judith

the GOP is not over 50% of the voters, Lance.

Lance

Judith, Didn't say they were, but I can see I wasn't clear.

The 40 percent is made up of Democrats and "Independents" who routinely vote Democratic. The tide is turning in Democrats' favor but party registration in the country is still close to a one third to one third to one third split--- around 34 percent Democrats, 32 Republicans, 34 Independents. But Independent means anybody who didn't register as a Democrat or a Republican. That would include Liberals and Conservatives, members of the Right to Life and Green Parties, Communists and Neo-Nazis. A lot of Independents are not truly independent, they are just more ideological and they tend to vote for the same party, election in and election out. I'm figuring that at least 7 percent of the Independents are by voting preference reliably Republican. For a long time it was more: more self-identified Independents voted Republican than voted Democratic. That's changed in recent years. But assuming the other 20 percent, the independent Independents are in play, to win a Presidential election---in a two-way race---a Democrat needs to win over at least a fifth of them. If the Democrat wants to win with a sizable enough majority to claim a mandate he/she has to win over at least that many again. And if he/she wants to win in a landslide he/she has to win over at least that many more. Or pick off a lot of Republican votes along the way.

However he/she works it, she/he has to address that 20 percent of the electorate plus the Republicans---that's the other 60 percent.

actor212

Lance,

I'm not convinced that a lot of the "independent" and Republican support in caucuses and primaries for Obama isn't merely a ploy by Republicans to deny Hillary a run, and that once Obama wins, his poll numbers will plummet back to around 43-44%, making him dead even with or trailing McCain.

Yes, I know, an awful lot of conservatives are upset that McCain will represent them, but it's foolish to think they'll abandon the Republican party, while we Democrats will march in lockstep. First, it's out of character for Republicans, and second, it's out of character for human nature.

After all, John Kerry was never really the man everyone wanted in the 2004 primaries, he was merely the last one standing, yet we voted for him because he was "electable".

Phil Jamison

On the subject of a potential Obama administration, there is an interesting project in pure democracy just getting started on the web: automated and continuously updated 'approval style' voting on VP, cabinet, and major posts. Approval style voting means you can vote for as many of the choices as you approve. The results are instantly viewable and the system is reasonably tamper proof (won't allow multiple voting from the same computer). The lists of nominees are continually expanded to include all other reasonable suggestions. Voting may be anonymous and votes may be changed at any time. The site will remain open indefinitely for follow up research or re-voting any time (also please spread the word so as to improve the sample): http://puredem.wordpress.com

Judith

okie dokie, Lance. I'll take your word for it. I think a Clinton/McCain contest will be interesting. Personally, I think she will be able to clean his clock so I am not all that worried.

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