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Willie

I don't think Obama has given up on this "Can't we all get along" business. I do think this is his vanity. Neither he nor the rest of the Democrats have what it takes to make the bill unambiguously a jobs bill based on rebuilding our infrastructure--all 800 billion, no tax cuts or hard to explain benefits to education, etc. These other programs should be in the budget.

President Obama has played this whole thing stupidly in my opinion. As have the Democrats. Name me one Blue Dog or Republican who would vote against a pure infrastructure bill.

Sorry for my tone but the Democrats have really disappointed me on this.

Ken Muldrew

Lance wrote: 'To riff on John's metaphor, it's as if you're trying to negotiate dinner plans and when you suggest Italian your date says, "I don't care where we eat just as long as we get to pass by a soup kitchen on our way there so I can yell Losers! out the window of our limo." '

Very similar to something that actually happened here a few years ago. Our premier (Canadian version of a Governor) had been out on the town getting liquored and had his limo driver take him to a homeless shelter on his way home in the early hours of the morning. Premier marches into the shelter and starts verbally abusing some of the unfortunates and then throws money at one guy and says, "get a job, you bum". At this point his handlers managed to pull him away before he got in a little too deep.

The hell of it is, he managed to turn it into a public relations coup, bowing before reporters and swearing that he would give up drinking if they just gave him another chance.

"Look at it gentlemen, and ladies all.... There's a hand that was the hand of a hog; but it ain't so no more; it's the hand of a man that's started on a new life, and'll die before he'll go back. You mark them words—don't forget I said them...."

A very sad reflection on our populace that they fell for this foolishness.

Linkmeister

Willie, 36 of 41 Republicans voted for this proposal. I submit that nearly all of those 36 would also have voted against a job bill.

actor212

I think Obama's winding up a haymaker. Already, Pelosi's office is releasing jobs numbers that show job losses of 3.5 million over the past fourteen months (when Bush's pathetic jobs creation reached its peak).

The stimulus passed, of course, and will go to conference. It will be fun to watch Republicans swallow hard and vote against jobs.

Chris The Cop

Willie managed to say in a much more pithy way what I would have, that there is too much crap in this bill. I don't mind having tax breaks in the stimulus package, but a simple infrastructure jobs bill along the lines of the Depression-era WPA/TVA would suit me just fine.

And it does seem as if the Democrats see this bill as a chance to throw in some wish-list items that don't remotely belong in it.If you want to increase funding for education, you pass an education bill. You don't put it in a stimulus package and then shout out that Republicans are crazy not to vote for it.

It's ironic that Barney Frank, one of the first Democrats to see the urgency of the credit crisis in the Fall, could say something so stupid as "No tax break built a road, no tax cut puts a cop on the street," when tax cuts almost always increase federal revenues, which make these programs easier to afford.

I also think you miss, or mis-characterize, George Will's point, but I've rambled on long enough.

Linkmeister

tax cuts almost always increase federal revenues

Chris, that's supply-side faith, which has mostly been diminished by facts. It may happen, but not in the short run. All those new businesses supposedly created aren't instantly profitable, so they don't pay taxes immediately. In the meantime, tax revenues fall.

Chris The Cop

Linkmeister: which is it? Has supply side economics "been mostly diminished by facts" or is the answer "it may happen," but only in the long run?

Revenues went up between 50 and 75% after Reagan's tax cuts, (depending on whose figures you use) and the result was 93 months of uninterrupted growth. Doesn't mean Reagan didn't have a hand in the huge comcomittant deficits, but no more than Congress. The month that saw the largest (federal) tax receipts in U.S. history? March, 2007. Now, things certainly have gone in the shitter since, but I haven't heard anyone say the current crisis is because of the tax rate.

Now, granted, there isn't much of a tax rate to cut (Reagan had a 70% ceiling to play with, remember), and the smaller the cut (in percentage points) the less effective it is; but supply side hasn't been proven wrong, just harder to figure out since tax rates can only go down so far and the overall debt (what is it, $9 trillion?-and soon to skyrocket) will eventually put a FUBAR on most any plans either party comes up with.

Apostate

Chris, may I recommend Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine? I know it's obnoxious to throw books at someone as a way of responding to an idea, but 1) political economy is too complicated a subject for the comment section of a blog; 2) it would derail the thread and 3) it's a book well worth reading for its own sake, both for its historical examination of world economies and its clear explication of the economic theories of Milton Friedman.

It will also fully address all you are saying about Reagan and supply-siders and tax-cuts (none of which is accurate, as far as my knowledge and study of the subject goes, which is only as far as smarter people like Krugman and Klein have shown the way).

actor212

Chris,

How do you explain, then, that when Clinton readjusted the tax rates upward, tax revenues and economic growth were both stimulated? He created the single biggest economic boom in the history of mankind, and did it without a war.

MaryL

What very few people are mentioning anywhere in liberal and progressive blogs is that the Democrats don't have the votes to pass this bill in the Senate. If this source is right, the bill needs 60 votes, not a simple majority. They have to peel off some Republicans and get their own idiot Blue Dogs on board. This isn't the old Democratic problem of just rolling over, or yet another example of Reid being scared of a filibuster's shadow: they really, really need to be bipartisan, to some degree, and to appear sufficiently bipartisan to appeal to the public as well.

Obama has done a pretty good job of appearing to hold out his hand and getting it slapped repeatedly, while still getting what he has repeatedly called an imperfect but highly necessary bill. I'm taking Obama's linked speech and the upcoming speech and tour as the necessary big sales job on the value of the stimulus.

Lance Mannion

I think people are missing Chris' point, which wasn't a simple supply side argument. I liked what Barney Frank said as a way of shutting De Mint up, but tax breaks do help get things get built, at least at the local level. A lot of new construction gets jumpstarted when the developers are assured that among the first debts they'll have to pay off taxes won't be one of them. The House bill was written without any earmarks, so it isn't as full of pork and earmarks as the Republicans are claiming. It might have been better if the President had submitted an infrastructure bill...and an education bill...and an aid to the states bill...and...and...and...all at once, which would have made the Republicans have to scramble every which way and would have made them have to argue specifically against building roads, keeping schools open, saving the states from bankruptcy etc. That's not what happened, this is what we've got, and it needs to pass just to keep the momentum, whatever's left, going. There's no starting over from scratch. There will be no second shot at this.

MaryL's right, too. I've been thinking about this. The Republicans aren't the problem. Ben Nelson and Claire McCaskill are. The Democrats don't really have a 58 to 41 majority. (Are all the replacements seated, by the way?) They won't have a 59 to 41 majority when Al Franken finally shows up. The breakdown is really something like this:

47 Moderate and Liberal Democrats and 1 socialist
vs.
50 Conservative Democrats and Republicans and Right Wing Nuts and 1 asshole named Joe Lieberman.

Nothing gets passed without Blue Dog votes.

Should be noted too that many of the tax breaks in the both versions of the bill are window dressing---realatively few people are going to take advantage of them. For example, there's a tax break in there for anyone who buys a new energy efficient furnace, washing machine or hot water heater. Unless things get better quick, the only people who are going to take advantage are people who have to replace their old stuff and who can get financing. Which is too bad, because American factories still make furnaces, washing machines, and hot water heaters and it would be great if there was a sudden and giant leap in demand.

Similar arguments for the tax breaks for new home and car buyers. They're not going to cost as much as they would during good times and they're not going to do as much good as they would during good times.

Apostate

50 Conservative Democrats and Republicans and Right Wing Nuts and 1 asshole named Joe Lieberman.

LOL

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