That's the way the Maverick and Commander bounces

I'll have a longer post about this in the morning, but for now I have to say this is stupid reporting. STUPID!

Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama's 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday....

McCain is benefiting from a bounce since he clinched the GOP nomination a month ago. The four-term Arizona senator has moved up in matchups with each of the Democratic candidates, particularly Obama.

Ok, the poll does show that Obama and McCain are statistically tied, at 45 per cent.  Know how they stood when the last  AP-Ipsos poll was taken, the one against which McCain's bounce is measured?  Obama at 51, McCain at 41.

That's right. The Maverick and Commander has bounced a whole four points upwards. In a poll with a 3.1 per cent margin of error. That's a punctured tire's bounce of a bounce.

Obama clearly lost ground.  But McCain didn't pick up many of those lost votes.  He didn't erase Obama's lead at all.  All that's apparently happened is that around 6 per cent of the voters (give or take a few percentage points) formerly leaning towards Obama are thinking things over.  UNDECIDED has erased Obama's lead, not McCain.

STUPID reporting, but typical. Whatever happens from here on out will always be reported as good for McCain.  On the second Wednesday of November, the headlines will read, "McCain shows great strength in remarkable comeback.  Two graphs down we'll learn he lost 30 states instead of the expected 31.  Three graphs down we'll learn why having their candidate win the Presidency will be bad for the Democrats.

Note:  The reporter seems to operating from the assumption that a 3.1 percent margin of error means that that the numbers will be off either way by exactly 3.1 percent, while he's phrased his "anaylsis" as if the numbers will be off by that much in only one direction, the one that favors McCain.

By the way, McCain's picked up 2 percentage points in a matchup with Hillary, who is where she was in February, ahead with 48 percent.  McCain now has 45 percent.  A statistical tie the reporter is at great pains to assure us.

Comments

[Batocchio]

Nice analysis. This is a classic example of commercially-motivated journalism. They needed to fill copy, and this makes for a headline.

[LondonLee]

Did anyone see McCain on American Idol last night? Clinton and Obama gave nice (if bland) little speeches about making the world a better place and he comes on with a poor joke aimed at the Dems about not counting votes in the Florida and Michigan primaries. Talk about tone deaf, I hope every parent watching the show with their kids was thinking "who is this jerk?"