On to Kentucky!

And North Carolina and West Virginia and Indiana and Nebraska and Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Puerto Rico, and Guam!

I can't help it.  This is fun!  I want all the states to have their say. And Guam and Puerto Rico, not to mention Florida and Michigan, but I'll get to them.

I've been writing lately as if I think Obama's got it all sewn up.  I don't want to think it.  But he's still the likely nominee, even after Pennsylvania.  It's not so much the math that's against Clinton, it's the circumstances.  The math argument's always annoyed me, anyway.  Yes, the math's against her, as lots of Obama supporters love pointing out.  But it's also against him.  As long as she stays in the race and keeps winning he can't gather enough pledged delegates to win on the first ballot either.  The rules don't give the nomination to whoever comes into the convention ahead.  Just think how that would have played out if John Edwards had been able to stay in the race and the three of them arrived in Denver each with a lot but not enough delegates.  The rules allow a floor fight and many, many ballots.  Neither the rules nor the math are against her.  Sentiment and perceptions and simple pragmatic politics are.

Clinton could still turn some of those factors her way.  She can change some important minds.  A lot can still happen.  But rooting for that is beginning to feel like rooting for Obama to turn out to be spectacularly self-destructive, which I don't believe he is and I don't want him to be---having their front-runner go down in flames of his own igniting would not make the Democrats look good going into the fall.

Still, I don't want her to drop out...yet.

She may do well enough in the upcoming primaries to convince Party leaders and the super-delegates to let it go to the convention floor.

And, while it's almost impossible to have happen in time, some genius could think up a way to let Michigan and Florida have their say that Obama cannot block.

Yes, I understand that the Clinton team's attempts to overturn the rules they had agreed to have been in bad faith.  But the Obama team's refusal to go along isn't motivated by principle either.  They were scared a real re-vote would cost him the nomination---the risk is that their fear may cost him the election, but we'll see how long and hard Democrats in Michigan and Florida can hold a grudge.  This hasn't been a case of one side begging for permission to cheat while the other makes a disinterested defense of the rules for the rules' own sake.  This was a struggle between two groups of opportunists working for their own advantage.

But that's politics.

High-minded talk about the "rules" gives them too much weight and the actual situation not enough.  We're not talking about the United States Constitution here, nor are we arguing over a bad call in a pick-up softball game.  The rules are a more or less arbitrarily concocted set of instructions (actually many mutually contradicting sets of instructions) for choosing the Party's nominee in a relatively orderly and, with luck, fair fashion, and the future of the nation is at stake.  In this case, the rules have gotten in the way of their own purpose.  The nomination isn't being decided in a very orderly fashion and it's egregiously unfair to have disenfranchised all those Democratic voters.  On top of this, the rules have threatened the future of the nation by, depending on your point of view, making it unlikely that the Party will nominate the best and more electable candidate or by forcing the best and more electable candidate to sabotage his own chances in two key states and thus cost himself the election while the country winds up stuck with the Maverick and Commander for four years.

The whole mess was caused by the stupidity and stubbornness of party leaders in the states and on the national level.  The rank and file should not have to pay for those mistakes.

This is probably all besides the point now.  The fight might still going on behind closed doors, Clinton may have plans to bring it up again at the convention, but more than likely the super-delegates will end the thing as soon as they think they can tell the millions and millions of Democrats who have voted for Hillary, Sorry, but she gave it her best shot and she just fell short, an argument that will be a lot more persuasive after she has in fact given it her best shot and fallen short.

By the way, remember when it was Obama supporters who thought it would be a bad thing if the nomination was decided by the super-delegates?

Oh well.  Onward and upward.

John McCain is beatable.  It won't be a cakewalk, but it's going to be easier than many seem to think.  Everything's against him.  Meanwhile, the extended primary campaign has been on the whole good for the party.  It's brought in new voters and lots of money.  It's excited people.  It's kept the focus on the Democrats, which has bloodied and bruised each candidate but over all the effect has been to push John McCain into the shadows and towards irrelevance.  As is so often true, digby's right:

To me, this primary is actually a good thing for the fall. All this hand wringing strikes me as typical Democratic nervous nellie-ism. A huge increase in Democratic voter registration, building of strong ground operations in most states, new technologies being beta tested, lots of media coverage and battle testing for the nominee are of benefit to the nominee in the fall. Meanwhile, the Democrats stay at center stage while McCain wanders around in obscurity, failing to raise money and leaving a trail of gaffes in his wake. As long as they don't know at whom to aim their fire the Republicans can't cement their narrative. In the end, I remain convinced that we are going into an election that is so fundamentally seismic that either of them can win it, even if more closely than we might want, due to the breakthrough nature of their campaigns. The primary continuing on is not going to change that.

Fears that the long march to Denver is tearing the Party apart are I think based on too many of us having internalized the Media Insiders' CW that everything is bad for the Democrats.

So here are my reasons for wanting Hillary to keep on plugging.

---Political junkies are growing bored and impatient, but rank and file voters in each state where there's been a primary or a caucus or both have enjoyed the race, enjoyed the attention from the candidates, enjoyed having a say in the nomination for the first time in their lives.  Democrats in the remaining states deserve to have the same kind of fun.

---What I said earlier about how the millions and millions of Democrats who have voted for Hillary and donated to her campaign. 

---What I said about the money and the new voters and the irrelevancy of the Maverick and Commander.

---It's been good for Obama.  He's needed the seasoning.  He needs some more of it.  If Clinton had dropped out the first time the Obama-supporting bloggers got out their white boards and Tim Russert-style demonstrated that the math was against her, we would not have heard of Jeremiah Wright yet.  Or the flag pins yet.  Or Tony Rezko yet.  Or William Ayers yet.  We would not have seen his bowling form, we would not have learned how prissy and unmanly and elitist it is to want to finish your waffles or order orange juice in a diner, we would not have heard the words "bitter" and "cling," YET!

But we'd have heard them.  Think it would have been easier if the first time we heard Wright's "Goddamn America" was in October?

Obama was traveling inside a protective shield made up of the Beltway Insiders' Clinton-hatred.  As is becoming clear, once she's out of the way, that shield will be powered down.  Obama will be just the Democrat running for President and if there's anybody the Insiders' loathe and despise nearly as much as they loathe and despise the Clintons it's any Democrat who runs for President.

The longer the primary campaign has gone on the more lessons Obama has had to learn about what it's going to be like in the fall.

---It's infuriating the Beltway Insiders.

They have been rooting from the beginning to see Clinton humiliated.  Way back when, when the show was just getting started and they were declaring that her nomination was inevitable, they were consoling themselves with the hope that Rudy Giuliani would mop up the floor with her in November.  Then they saw that Obama had a chance to give them what they wanted a lot sooner, with the bonus of giving them another Democrat whose humiliation in November they could root for and aid and abet.

They've wanted nothing more than to be able to laugh at her in defeat and declare that it proof that the country had rejected...Bill Clinton, at long last.

It's always been about Whitewater.

When this is over, many of them will rush to declare that she lost because of her husband.  Others will go on and on about "Clinton fatigue."  But if in the end she and Obama finish in a virtual tie and she loses on points, they will sound like the drivelers and self-serving and self-aggrandizing liars and fools that they are.

But my last reason for wanting her to stay in it is:

I'm having fun.

I don't understand why more of us on the Western end of the Bandwidth aren't.

Chagrined update:  Apparently, once upon a time, back in January, I wasn't quite as blase about Clinton's reversals on Michigan and Florida.  But that was also back when I thought she was still going to win the nomination.  So I'm a hypocrite and I'm stupid.  But it's still all about Whitewater.

Related:  Rex Nutting of MarketWatch says that the loser in Pennsylvania was...John McCain.

And Democrats in North Carolina are having a ball!

Meanwhile, a couple of good quotes.

Wolcott summing up for the New York Times:

Hillary Clinton's ruthless insistence on winning big-state primaries with traditional Democratic voters only hastens and strengthens the case that she drop out of the race and let Barack Obama finish his waffle.

And I'm kind of the opposite of Avendon Carol when it comes to Bill Maher.  One minute I think he's saying something smart, and the next I want to smack him.  But via Crooks and Liars here's one minute where Avedon and I are in synch, with neither of us wanting to smack him.

And finally, new rule: If voting can destroy the Democratic Party, then the party isn’t very democratic. Democrats need to stop freaking out about how this long primary battle between two popular candidates needs to be “settled yesterday! Because the candidates are bloodying each other! They’re causing irreparable harm! Mommy and Daddy are fighting!” Hey you people need to reach into your teenager’s knapsack and pull out a Paxil or Prozac and chill out.

Democrats, your task is not just to choose between this pair, it’s to grow a pair. Now, I know the idea of a very close race brings up some pretty bad memories for Democrats, but these are Democratic primaries. There are no Republicans in this race, so there is nobody organized enough to actually steal the election. What is so terrible about a long, drawn out contest? A season of American Idol is, what, 87 weeks? That’s a lot of time just to pick out a cruise ship entertainer. This is the presidency we’re talking about. I understand that a lot of Democrats feel passionately about their candidate, and that’s great. But then their passion gets the best of them and they go on websites like DailyKos, and post stuff, like the Obama supporter, who wrote, “I will vote for Hillary, but then I will leave the country.” Yes, because who could live in a nation that elects the person that you just voted for?

Comments

[Redstar]

This is a great post. I'm having a blast too, and the better Clinton does, the more at peace I think I feel with the chance that she might not get the nom. Ironic, but I just want her to have fought as long and hard as possible. All this sh*t about her dropping out, etc. has been infuriating, and it's great to see her get the wins and support she needs and deserves. This is the most exciting election I've lived through yet.

[Mike Schilling]

If Hillary bringing up Wright and Farrakhan is a good test for Obama, then Obama should be talking about Vince Foster and FBI files and how Bill was just counseling that young woman with the big hair. You don't want the first time Hillary faces those questions to be in October.

[Chase]

As far as I can deduce, the only positive to Hillary remaining in the race is if you happen to also support the idea of a McCain presidency. 'Cause trust me, a polarized Democratic Party and a battered candidate (who already faces the uphill challenge of silent racism in America) don't stand a chance against a war-monger already crowned a "maverick" by the mainstream news media.

[Lance]

Chase, the party is not polarized. It's having a family argument over who's best. We'll all get over it by the time Obama makes what I'm sure will be a tremendous acceptance speech in Denver.

Mike, are you saying that Jeremiah Wright never said Goddamn America or are you saying that Hillary really did have Vince Foster killed?

Also, those things have been out there since she started running---look at what the Media Insiders focused on when the Clinton White House logs were released---but I doubt many of Hillary's supporters thought they were going to get through the election without that shit being brought up, while apparently a lot of Obama supporters still think he should be exempt from any sort of campaigning they think is negative.

[Mike Schilling]

Mike, are you saying that Jeremiah Wright never said Goddamn America or are you saying that Hillary really did have Vince Foster killed?

I'm pretty sure Hillary had nothing to do with Foster's death. I'm goddam sure than Obama didn't say "Goddam America". And I'm sure that Hillary knew damned well that Bill was providing more than words of wisdom.

Also, those things have been out there since she started running---look at what the Media Insiders focused on when the Clinton White House logs were released---but I doubt many of Hillary's supporters thought they were going to get through the election without that shit being brought up, while apparently a lot of Obama supporters still think he should be exempt from any sort of campaigning they think is negative.

I'm sure they'll be brought up by the GOP if Hillary gets the nomination, but I will lose much of my respect for Obama if he brings them up repeatedly and then uses them to attack her electability, likewise if he stresses her maiden name while holding up pictures of her sleazebag brothers. There's negative and then there's dirty, and the Clintons haven't stopped at negative.

[jerry]

Terrific post. It's infuriating the netroots too, and as a member of the netroots I think that's a very good thing. Kneejerk stupid bullying is kneejerk and stupid and bullying even when it is done by "our friends."

The worries that "we'll lose the millenials" makes me fear the "self-esteem movement". We've spent far too much time telling these kids how precious they are and never wrong. Now we find they won't take good honest jobs if someone may hurt their feelings, and if "their candidate" is defeated, we will lose them forever.

[apostate]

Great post. Agree.

[Daniel]

The "bitter story" wasn't inevitable. It came out as a result of a long sustained campaign. The longer we go, the more exhausted the candidates get, the more moments like that we're going to see.

Every dollar spent here is a dollar that's not going to be used against John McCain. And furthermore, McCain's able to duck even more media scrutiny than usual because of the electoral circus. This isn't a win-win situation.

Hillary's got every right to stay in this as long as she wants, but we are fast approaching the point where the utility of sustained competition just gives way to mistakes and exhaustion.

[Huh]

The best part of these last several posts is that it's really abundantly clear that you're a HRC supporter. Nothing more annoying than folks who dance around and pretend to be *undecided* when they are, in fact, completely committed to one candidate or the other.

At the risk of Tom W stopping by and mindlessly intoning that that anyone not supporting HRC must be sexist, I must say that your rationale for supporting her in that past post was surprisingly weak. Maintaining that she'll do the hard work and get the right answer even after she flubs one critical decision after another - the heath care debacle, voting for the AUMF without even reading the NIE and subsequent vote on Kyl Lieberman - is pretty hard to follow.

In any event, at least you're on record - so when you write, folks know where you stand.

[greg in ak]

while i agree that this battle is not destroying the democrats like some people fear, i am getting a little hungry. I'm hungry for a democrat to start beating the pooh out of mccain. i want to see his flop-flips and insane polices and crappy public speaking be taken out and whipped by the Dem candidate. the press is giving mcsame a free ride mostly and it will take a while (if ever) for them to start actually challenging him. every day of the dem primary means Abe Simpson can keep wandering around the country, not being trashed.

i want my beaten and broken repub nominee now...(stamps feet and whines)

[zeke]

God Damn America? Hell yeah, when it's warranted. As it happens, I don't believe she exists, but if she did I'm sure God would smite America for slavery and a legacy of racism and discrimination. I think she would damn us for, just for beginners, killing and maiming millions of people in the Spanish American War, the Vietnam War, the occupation of Iraq, our numerous illegal incursions into South America and Central America, not to mention our own homegrown genocide of the Native Americans. All damnable, wouldn't you agree, Lance?

So let's quit pretending to be shocked at Reverend Wright's words. Let's quit pretending we don't know just what he meant. Let's quit pretending that preachers aren't allowed some dramatic license in delivering hard truths in the form of sermons.

And finally, let's quit pretending that Hillary Clinton, in her heart of hearts, takes any umbrage at either Wright's remarks, or at Obama's continued membership in Wright's church.

[lina]

Now that it has gone on this long, it's probably a good idea to see it through until all the primary races are finished in early June. Then, when the last primary vote is tallied, Michigan and Florida delegates should be divided 50/50, and the candidate that comes up short on elected delegates should drop out of the race and put her/his support behind the winner of the delegate count. The supers can get him/her to the magic number at the convention.

If the circular firing squad goes on through August, the idea that McCain is "independent" will harden and he will win in November.

[David Parsons]

I don't think that anyone is shocked at Reverend Wright's words. I've said /far/ worse about this country, and I'm a privileged white male. But that's not going to stop the press from beating up on it, because even though Mr. Obama has the advantage of not being a Clinton, he still suffers from the fatal flaw of being a Democrat, no matter how many Republican talking points he tries to coopt.

Be /very/ thankful that this has come up in the primary and that the press loathes Ms. Clinton. It's going to be much worse in the general election, and there will be no fallback candidate if Mr. Obama's campaign can't handle that kind of racism at that time.

[Lance]

Daniel: Every dollar spent here is a dollar that's not going to be used against John McCain.

But Daniel every dollar being spent in the primaries IS a dollar being spent against McCain. Both Obama and Clinton are all over the newspapers and TV's, they are out there shaking hands and kissing babies, and speaking in front of HUGE crowds that they don't have to manufacture. They are rallying new voters and cementing loyalties. The fall campaign has already started for the Democrats.

This is why I think it was not a good move for Obama to cut Florida and Michigan out. I think he'd have done well in both states.

Meanwhile, McCain wanders around, ignored except by the Insider Media, which has to cover him, and political junkies like us.

And based on both Clinton's and Obama's ability to raise money and the fact that McCain is on his knees begging for pennies, I'd say cash for the fall won't be a problem.

Huh: The best part of these last several posts is that it's really abundantly clear that you're a HRC supporter...I must say that your rationale for supporting her in that past post was surprisingly weak.

Well, I've never tried to keep it a secret that I'm supporting Hillary. As for the weakness of my rationale being surprising? I thought that's what I've been saying, but just to make it clearer, my support for Clinton is based on familiarity, geographic happenstance, and historical accidents---Four years ago, I fully expected that in 2008 I'd voting for John Kerry AGAIN. After November, I thought I'd be voting for Al Gore AGAIN, then finally I thought I'd be voting for John Edwards. I've never been anti-Obama, just a little more pro-Hillary. I'm going to have no problem switching my allegiance to Obama and no trouble working up enthusiasm for him.

greg in ak: i want my beaten and broken repub nominee now...(stamps feet and whines)

greg, I've been doing my best to help get the ball rolling. Would it make you feel better if I wrote another Maverick and Commander post?

[actor212]

I'll go you one better, Lance.

I think Hillary should be tougher on Barry. There's stuff out there...like Nadhmi Auchi and Aiham Al-Sammarrae, that the GOP will use to make Obama seem like he's in the pocket of the insurgents in Iraq.

Do you remember Willie Horton? Gennifer Flowers?

Neither of them was raised first in the general election. Both were raised first in the primaries (by Al Gore, of all people!)

Did it give the GOP ammo? You bet. So Al Gore should have been out there hammering Dukakis and Clinton hard, much harder, to give them a taste of what to look out for.

In this regard, Hillary's strong case about having had her laundry rummaged thru is so spot on as to be a major positive point that SDs ought to be looking closely at.

[David Wilford]

She may do well enough in the upcoming primaries to convince Party leaders and the super-delegates to let it go to the convention floor.

Not going to happen, because there's no good reason for the Democratic Party to let it wait for three more months when the focus has to be McCain and the GOP, not further intra-party squabbling.

[David Parsons]

“I think Hillary should be tougher on Barry”

Now, I prefer Ms. Clinton to Mr. Obama, but his first name is Barack. If he wanted to follow the other famous Barry, I'd think he'd call himself that. It seems overly familiar to call a man by a nickname when he hasn't expressed a desire to be called by that name.

[Bob]

“Yes, I understand that the Clinton team's attempts to overturn the rules they had agreed to have been in bad faith. But the Obama team's refusal to go along isn't motivated by principle either….This hasn't been a case of one side begging for permission to cheat while the other makes a disinterested defense of the rules for the rules' own sake. This was a struggle between two groups of opportunists working for their own advantage”
Amazing. Two candidates agree to a sanction, later one changes her mind and the other continues to accept the original agreement and that’s proof that both are opportunists. Wow.
Another factor to consider in all the FL/MI back and forth is from the moment the punishment was decreed both organizations changed their strategies. They didn’t continue running their campaigns exactly as they had before. Counting the existing vote or holding a re-vote will most likely serve to reward Clinton at Obama’s expense.
But hey, if your rallying cry is “Clinton or Nothing! (McCain 08!!)” I guess tying and untying knots while pointing out the other guy probably knows how to tie a knot is acceptable.

[Avedon]

The "bitter story" wasn't inevitable. It came out as a result of a long sustained campaign. The longer we go, the more exhausted the candidates get, the more moments like that we're going to see.

Yeah, right, because McCain and the corporate media would never have done that.

Both of your candidates still suck, dammit. They could be campaigning against McCain right now if they were smart, but they'd rather pummel each other.

And please give it up with the bullshit about how only Clinton has been fighting dirty. Obama has done some very stinky things; his supporters just choose not to notice them. They really do both suck.

[calling all toasters]

Shorter Lance:

Operation Chaos--it's alllllll good!

[Rana]

I just want to know one thing: those of you who are tired of the primary - have you voted yet?

[MsFeasance]

Um..what rules is Hillary asking to break? Have you actually READ the rules? With a hat tip to zuzu, of course.

[MsFeasance]

This is also more to the point on that.

[Bob]

MsFeasance: Yes I have actually READ the RULES. In August 2007 the candidates agreed to the sanctions against the two states. Clinton didn't say another word about the issue until after she realized the grossly incompetent campaign she had run (overspent early, ignored caucuses, had no plan in place for anything after Super Tuesday) had, surprisingly enough, failed to procure her the nomination. Go figure. Then she and her supporters became good little Patrick Henry's making stirring speeches about every vote counting. Fair enough. Let's start with an honest tally of the actual popular vote in caucuses, which adds somewhere between 1 -2 million total votes to Obama’s lead. Second, unlike Clinton, Obama actually ran a smart campaign based on a 50 state strategy. In other words, from the moment he AND Clinton signed on the DNC memorandum, he altered his campaign to reflect the new realities on the ground.
So, in summary, there is nothing illegal about reinstating MI and FL, just as there is nothing illegal about superdelegates overturning the will of the majority of the voters in the Democratic primary but if either is done and Obama is seen as having lost through legal but unethical manipulation say goodbye to the Democratic coalition.
On the other hand, those of you whose rallying cry is “Clinton at All Costs” will get what you want. Hope you enjoy the 10 weeks between Denver and Nov 4 cause it’s the last time for a long time anyone will pay any attention to any Democratic candidate for president.