I'm not there, I don't know, and I shouldn't even try to guess. Even if I was there, there being Washington DC, I wouldn't know. I'd have no contacts, no sources, no inside information. Even the anonymous cabbies who chatter away nonstop whenever any tired old pundit climbs into their cab would clam up around me.
But ignorance doesn't stop me from having an opinion.
And my opinion is that Karl Rove is not a genius.
At any rate, I've never seen any evidence that he is. All I've seen is evidence that he wins elections by playing dirty in the most old-fashioned and obvious ways and he's good at using what clout he has to take revenge on anybody who crosses him.
Seems that every article and op-ed piece about the man contains a gratuitous reference to how brilliant the guy is. Paul Begala, speculating for the TPMCafe about the stresses upon people working inside the White House with the spectre of Patrick Fitzgerald haunting their offices, refers off-handedly to Rove's "prodigious brain." Begala worked for Bill Clinton so he knows from prodigious brains.
So I don't doubt that Rove is smart. Very smart.
But is he that smart?
From all I've seen over the last 6 years, Rove's "genius" consists of a pair of twinned insights
That there are people who admire winning so much they will forgive the winner just about anything, and among them are a good number of journalists and many of your political opponents.
And that there are a great number of people so blinded by party loyalty, or naive patriotism, so trusting, so convinced that their leaders' hearts must be in the right places, that they can't bring themselves to believe that the President of the United States would employ somebody as dirty as Karl Rove. They can't believe their own eyes when you steal candy from babies right in front of them. You can grab the lollipop from the kid's sticky fingers, rap the brat on the head with it, wave it in front of his tear-streamed face making Nyah nyah nyah nyah naaaan-yah noises and the rubes and suckers watching you do it will blink, shake their heads, rub their eyes, look again, and decide that they couldn't have seen what they just saw, nobody would be that brazen and mean, the poor tyke must be crying for another reason and the Tootsie Pop now in your mouth you must have obtained by magic---by an act of pure genius.
And among this second group are a whole bunch of other journalists and politicians. Rove figured out he could cheat and no one would ever catch him or call him on it.
If anybody has any evidence of real genius at work, I'd like to hear it. Please make it something more than he got those anti-gay referenda on the ballots of 13 states because it doesn't take genius to figure out that stirring up the hatreds of voters is a good way to get them to turn out to vote your way. Same with the Swift Boat Vets. It is not genius to concoct a scheme to pay a bunch of angry and disappointed men to go out and tell lies about a man they all already hate.
If you want to argue that he has a genius for getting away with cold-blooded murder in broad daylight, you may be onto something. But is that genius or the luck of coming into power just at the time when the news media had foresaken their public duty as watchdogs and the Republicans had taken control of both houses of Congress so that there was no one around to call him to account?
George Bush has been in such increasing trouble since he was re-elected that it's hard to remember he wasn't doing all that well before last November. He squeeked out a win in an election that should have been the cakewalk we were promised Iraq would be. At one point in 2003 Rove himself was predicting that Bush would win all 50 states.
His margin of victory turned out to be within the statistical margin of error and to get that he needed massive voter suppression, probably widespread fraud and outright theft, and an opponent who was prone to taking his eye off the ball and relaxing into a trot at moments when he needed to gallop.
I love to mix sports metaphors.
To win Bush needed all of Rove's "genius."
How did that happen?
And when did it start?
I've picked out the moment when Bush's downfall began.
"Mission Accomplished."
Various lap dogs, partisans, sycophants and pro bono flunkeys in the Media swooned over Top Gun Bush prancing about the deck of the aircraft carrier in his flight suit. But I think most people thought he looked pretty silly. Even supporters were embarrassed for him. He was supposed to look like an action hero. Instead he'd turned himself into an action figure. Presidents aren't supposed to play at being GI Joe.
The stunt was obvious, trite, vulgar, crass, and a failure. And it was Karl Rove's.
If he didn't dream it up himself, he approved it.
The point of this grotesque pantomime was to plant in the rubes' heads the idea that George Bush had personally defeated Saddam, as if they'd gone at it mano a mano and GI George had whupped the A-Rab good and proper.
Besides being unseemly, it was unnecessary and unwise. What followed was predictable---and it wouldn't have taken a genius to predict it. Rove had tied Bush's popularity directly to the War in Iraq, and this turned out to be as smart as Jimmy Carter's imprisoning himself in the White House during the Hostage Crisis.
From the day Bush stood in front of that Mission Accomplished banner, every little piece of evidence that the mission wasn't accomplished yet was evidence of his personal failure to accomplish it.
Some genius.
Yet even now, after that, after the nearly blown election, after the continued PR disasters---the whole string of them following Katrina providing fine examples that there is no genius at work, only somebody desperately trying to recapture a moment of success four years ago atop the rubble of the World Trade Center---the myth of Rove's genius continues.
Mostly now the myth is retold in negative terms---what's wrong with the White House these days? Why all the missteps? All the screw-ups? Where's Rove? What happened to Rove? Karl Rove would never have let this, that, or the other thing go on! Something must be the matter with Rove!
The general consenus among the Rove Fan Club, to which it appears most of the Beltway Insiders belong, is that what's gone wrong isn't a result of bad policy, a President who isn't up to the job, an institutional commitment to cronyism, corruption, incompetence, and powermongering for power's sake, or even to misguided thinking. All that's gone wrong is that Karl Rove is for some reason not on top of his game.
The reason most often suggested is that Rove's been distracted by the Plame Affair.
Begala, who I don't believe for a moment is in the Fan Club but who would know what's being said in Washington, sums it up:
When he came to Washington, Mr. Bush surrounded himself with
tough-minded people who seemed not to be afraid to stand up to him.
But now his team is loaded with weak-kneed toadies, and Mr. Bush is
home alone. Karl Rove, of course, is fending off a potential
indictment. His prodigious brain has not entertained another thought
in months. (That's why, I suspect, some months back Rove popped off
and said liberals wanted to give terrorists psychotherapy after 9/11.
It was a loopy, stupid, and distinctly un-Rovian, meltdown - the first
public sign that the pressure was causing Karl to crack.)
There's that prodigious brain reference---which now sounds a tad sarcastic to me. Like I said, Begala knows from prodigious brains. But that's the CW in a nutshell, I think: "His prodigious brain has not entertained another thought in months."
How can he concentrate on business with an indictment dangling over his head?
But whatever the definition of genius is, part of it is that genius is focused.
One of the ways you recognize geniuses is by their ability to continue to work and work well under circumstances that would have the rest of us cowering in our beds and hiding our heads under the pillow so that no one can see us weeping in despair.
Geniuses don't get distracted. They don't lose their concentration. If anything, when under pressure, they tend to work harder!
I suppose, then, you could argue that all Rove's genius is being directed towards keeping himself out of jail or that genius is not an immutable quality, the greatest minds experience a falling off, and Rove is a former genius now.
Maybe.
But I say, "Mission Accomplished."
Rove's reputation has benefited from hyperbole and toadyism. There is no real evidence of it, and there never was. What there was was a rule that if you wrote about Rove you wrote about how smart he is, and the source of this rule it now appears was Rove himself.
In a column for the LA Times (registration required, natch), Jonathan Chait suggests that Rove is the chief source for all things Rove.
Chait starts from a premise that strikes me as bizarre---that the Bush Leaguers and their apologists in the media have been in cahoots to pretend that Karl Rove doesn't have the influence he's reputed to have, because if Rove is what we think Rove is, Bush really is a mindless puppet. It's always seemed to me that they've been proud of Rove and his genius and boasted that it's a sign of George Bush's greatness that he recognizes Rove's talent and isn't afraid to have such a superior mind in the same room with him. But Chait is a real reporter and the DC cabbies probably talk to him, so he'd know and I wouldn't. Doesn't matter. What matters is what Chait is saying here:
...in the case of Miers, Rove was out of the picture, distracted by his
potential indictment in the Valerie Plame/CIA scandal. As the New York
Times reported last week, "Some conservatives and Rove allies say
[Chief of Staff Andrew] Card kept Mr. Rove in the dark about the
seriousness of Mr. Bush's intentions until very late in the process,
thus sidestepping the advisor who would have been best able to
anticipate dissent among Republicans." This is what scientists call
"isolating the independent variable."
The result was a
disaster that bore none of the hallmarks of your normal Rove-driven
strategizing. The outreach to the base was almost nonexistent. The
smear campaign against the critics was clumsily handled. The Bush who
made this selection bears almost no resemblance to the Bush we've grown
accustomed to.
Ironically, the very fact that Rove is facing
indictment is causing some of Bush's staunchest allies to admit Rove's
influence at last.
In the latest issue of the Standard, Fred
Barnes calls Rove "irreplaceable." Rove "made Bush more conservative,"
writes Barnes, and now that he's tied up with Plamegate, "Bush appears
to be drifting ideologically."
What happened to Bush having
thoughts of his own? I'll tell you what. Rove desperately needs
conservatives to rally behind him to keep his job or maybe to stave off
prison.
So now the pretense that Rove was never pulling the
strings behind the surface has been dropped for the more immediate
imperative of saving his hide.
Rove is out to save Rove so Rove is running around telling everybody how smart Karl Rove is and how desperately Bush needs him. "If I go down, the President goes down. Remember how I told you all that stuff showing you how smart I am? Remember how I said it was all, wink, wink, 'off the record?' Well, it's not off the record anymore! Write it up!"
Anyone disappointed that Rove wasn't indicted yesterday along with Libby should consider this.
I don't know if Harriet Miers withdrew when she did because she just couldn't go on any longer or because, knowing she couldn't last much longer, she withdrew on the day Fitzgerald was expected to report in order to distract from the report. But I'm pretty sure that people in the White House, probably including Rove himself, hoped that they could use the announcement of Miers' replacement to change the subject after the indictments had been announced.
Except that only one indictment was announced.
Karl Rove is still "under investigation."
Rove may or may not be a genius.
But Patrick Fitzgerald is smarter.
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